Date: Saturday 16 October 2010
Location: Awapuni Racecourse, Palmerston North
Members Stand - Apprentice School Room
All members very welcome to attend.
National Jumps Day will be held in the Central Region, for the first time, on 26 September. An eight race card is scheduled, including three steeplechase events over the unique figure-eight course at Trentham, three hurdle races, a highweight and an Amateur riders’ race. It is likely that this will be the first time that an Amateur riders’ only race has ever been held at Trentham so bragging rights are certainly up for grabs.
General admission is free and the day is the final chance to witness jumping races in New Zealand for 2010.
National Jumps Day is also the final day of the El Cheapo Cars 2010 RACE Jumps Series and one lucky trainer will drive away in a Mazda Demio for 12 months, courtesy of Pat Baker and El Cheapo Cars.
A function is being held at Trentham Racecourse on the evening prior, with an open invitation to Trainers, Jockeys, Owners, Members, Jumping Enthusiasts and the racing public to attend. There will be full bar and food service available and the Wellington Racing Club encourages as many as possible to come along and celebrate jumps racing in a fun and casual environment. There is no entry cost.
In July 2009 an NZTR appointed Review Panel considered various aspects of the handicapping process and identified that fixed ratings adjustments for maiden winners resulted in fillies and mares being disadvantaged in Rating 70 races, a fact that was supported by data collected over the previous three racing seasons. The same data indicated that overall female participation in all grades above Rating 70 was significantly less than the percentage of the potential racehorse population that females represent. Performance of female horses in these higher grades was in line with participation.
The Review Panel concluded the best solution to the problem was a Rating 70 Set Weights and Penalties structure that would allow horses to be assessed by a handicapper under set weights conditions before progressing to handicap racing, as occurs in the UK.
The full race conditions for Rating 70 Set Weights with Penalties & Allowances races are as follows:
For horses with a domestic flat rating up to and including 70 at the close of nominations. Set Weights. CG&E 56kg. F&M 54.5kg. Horses that have won two races to incur a 1kg penalty. Horses that have won three races to incur a 2kg penalty. Horses that have won four or more races to incur a 3kg penalty.
Additionally, apprentice allowances can be claimed.
The penalty structure does not mean that a two, three or four win horse remains eligible for a Rating 70 race. Eligibility continues to be determined by rating. Horses rated higher than 65 that win Rating 70 races will generally be re-rated out of the Rating 70 band regardless of the weight carried.
The penalties and allowances determine the weight a horse will have to carry if it drops back into the band, or wins with a low rating and remains in the band. Maiden winners continue to be rated to 68 or 69 and are then assessed by a handicapper at each subsequent run. Fillies and mares will always receive an allowance in Rating 70 races, but there is no change to the way they are weighted in handicap races.
NZTR has recently reviewed and evaluated the effectiveness of these changes during the 2009/10 racing season.
In the three seasons prior to the change, fillies and mares represented 45.0% of the starters and 39.8% of the winners in R70 races. This under performance also had a consequential effect, as fewer fillies and mares progressed to the R80 grade, with only 36.8% of the starters and 38.6% of the winners being fillies and mares.
In 2009/10 fillies and mares no longer under performed in R70 races as they represented 45.3% of the starters and won 47.7% of these races. Importantly, the number of fillies and mares progressing to R80 races increased to 40.4% of starters and won 43.3% of these races. This suggests that notwithstanding the changes to R70 had made it marginally easier for them to progress through this grade; those that progressed to R80 remained at least as competitive as they had been previously on a relative basis.
The over performance of female horses in Rating 70 races is not unreasonable, particularly given the number of well bred male horses that are sold from New Zealand to overseas markets. It can also be anticipated that the level of over performance will reduce marginally over time as previously disadvantaged female horses win races and start to carry greater penalties when they drop back to Rating 70 races.
Three year olds previously represented 9.6% of the R70 starters and won 16.4% of these races. They were therefore statistically dominant in Rating 70 races and as such no age allowance was provided for under the SWP conditions. It was also felt that the penalty conditions tend to favour three year olds as the vast majority of those competing in Rating 70 races have not won more than one race.
In Rating 70 races run under SWP conditions three year olds represented a slightly larger percentage of starters (11.7%) indicating the new conditions have had a positive impact on three year old participation in these races. While their success rate (17.8%) has improved with increased participation, they have not improved the variance between percentage of three year old starters and the percentage of races won by three year olds. This suggests the SWP conditions have not created an anomaly in relation to three year olds.
The SWP conditions have been criticised on the basis that horses that have won four or more races are required to carry 59kg and can never get weight relief regardless of how far their rating may fall. These horses made up 2.69% of starters in Rating 70 SWP races and won 1.80% of the races.
The under performance of these horses is not alarming and they account for a very small participation group. Based on the statistical evidence there is not sufficient justification for changing the conditions either to limit the top weight to 58kg or to allow for weight relief based on a specified number of consecutive poor performances. Given that a horse would have to lose all form before weight relief could be provided, there is in fact little to be gained from such a provision. The type of horse that would be assisted by weight relief is likely to be one that has been running in the money without winning, and that horse would not qualify for weight relief in any event. The option also remains for that (experienced) horse to claim an apprentice allowance to reduce its weight.
In conclusion, the introduction of SWP conditions for Rating 70 races appears to have achieved the objective of redressing the imbalance between the participation level and success rate of fillies and mares in the R70 grade without significantly impacting the success rate or participation level of other groups of horses in these races.